Statistic Question

Question 3

An investment advisor recommends the purchase of shares in Infogenics, Inc.  He has made the following predictions:

P(Stock goes up 20% | Rise in GDP) = .6

P(Stock goes up 20% | Level GDP)    = .5

P(Stock goes up 20% | Fall in GDP)    = .4

An economist has predicted that the probability of a rise in the GDP is 20%, whereas the probability of a fall in the GDP is 40%.

What is the probability that the stock will go up 20%?

Question 2

An investment advisor recommends the purchase of shares in Infogenics, Inc.  He has made the following predictions:

P(Stock goes up 20% | Rise in GDP) = .6

P(Stock goes up 20% | Level GDP)    = .5

P(Stock goes up 20% | Fall in GDP)    = .4

An economist has predicted that the probability of a rise in the GDP is 20%, whereas the probability of a fall in the GDP is 40%.

We have been informed that the stock has gone up 20%.  What is the probability of a rise or fall in the GDP?